The Web as a Game
Copyright 2002 Peter Budvietas
If you want to understand business on the Web, let's play a game.
Get a bag you can't see through.
Get one hundred beads or marbles in 10 different colours, the same number in each colour.
Separate the beads by colour.
Put one bead of each colour into the bag.
That's the set-up done.
A move in the game consists of:
Shake the bag
Draw one bead from the bag
Put that bead and a bead of the same colour back into the bag.
Those are all the rules required for the game.
Play the game: bet on which colour will have the most beads, then make fifty moves.
Score: count the beads in the bag, by colour.
You win when the colour you picked has the most beads.
Probability experts have been trying to predict the results of such games for more than a century, and they don't even get close. The more colours used in the experiment, the less predictable the results.
How could we stack the odds in favour of a particular colour? The answer: start with more of a particular colour in the bag!
In this game, the probability of a particular bead being selected is exactly the same for every bead, but the probability for a colour depends on the number of beads of that colour in the bag at the time of a move.
How does this apply to the Web?
Think of the Web as being the bag. When someone buys from your site, then the odds on them buying again from your site are increased a little. The game version does this by adding a bead of the picked colour.
The difference between the game and the Web is due first to the sheer number of sites - there are millions, not sixty or less. Each site is represented by a colour. Because of the numbers, one transaction has very little effect on the following transactions. Plus, the Web can have sites coming on-line, which increases the number of colours available, plus some sites will disappear, reducing the number of colours available.
We know that we can increase the probability of a colour being chosen by having more balls of the same colour.
Network marketing (the idea of multiple income streams) is one way. An individual member is like a single bead; the colour of that bead is the same for all members of that company. The more members, the more successful the scheme appears to be - for the company, and for a few members who are towards the top of the network.
Why? Because on the lower levels, there is no way of distinguishing one member (bead) from another. It's like another bag within the bag. The likelihood of purchases crediting one member drop with the number of members at that level - the more beads in the inner bag, the lower the odds on a specific one being chosen.
In other words, most MLM members are unlikely to get a great return on their investment, because they all look the same.
Is there a better way for you to succeed on the Web?
Fall back to a basic principle in marketing: have a good unique selling point (USP).
With a good USP, your site and products stand out from similar sites and products. You give something that the others can't or don't give to the buyer. You build a niche that only YOU can fill.
In the game, there was nothing to distinguish one bead from another, until you see its colour. If the bag is full of different shapes (shape = USP), some shapes are chosen more often than others. You distinguish between them, and the odds for some shapes become far greater than others.
Find YOUR USP. Stand out. Be different.
That way, you will get your share of Internet riches!
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Peter Budvietas is an information synthesist. For over 30 years he has been studying patterns in economics and business and observing social and development trends. He has written many articles and currently has four ebooks on business fundamentals available through either the online training program, Methods of Success, http://www.formula3-5.biz or occasionally on special through Taking Business to the eXtreme at http://www.formula3-5.com